Over arching scenario
Faced with rising social discontent caused by decades of economic misery in the country since the collapse of the USSR and fearing the prospect of a colorless revolution as citizens demand the prosperity enjoyed by Russian citizens and their mighty Rouble (by 2019 the reserve currency of the global economy), the leaders of a fictional country that just happens to exist where the Baltic countries currently do, form a Russophobic fascist junta.
This junta passes a series of laws which cause social panic. Children under the age of 9 are forced to be gay, people are allowed to marry pets and, most controversially of all, minority Russian children are forcibly removed from their parents to be sold to gay couples in San Francisco who wish to adopt them into their sodomite lifestyle. Reports of genocide soon follow and evidence of child crucifixion is reported by the ever-releable "news" outlet, RT.
despite these draconian measures, Baltic citizens of all types continue to protest to join Russia leading the government stage a series of armed false-flag provocations on the soil of their entirely peaceful, massively prosperous, heavily armed nuclear neighbour - Russia. The intelligence services of Russia, despite being aware of this threat to both the state and our "compatriots abroad", are too incompetent to prevent these attacks and are unable to provide any proof, especially that which implicates the USA in its never-ending plot to break Russia and make our children gay.
Russian "defence" forces, alongside their "willing Belarusian comrades", begin to engage in vicious fire fights on Russian territory with unmarked soldiers who speak with American accents whom the Pentagon insists are "volunteers" or who, in the case of death or capture, "resigned from the US Army yesterday".
Seeing an opportunity caused by the instability, a fictional country that just happens to exist where Poland currently is, sees a chance to re-create its medieval empire by conquering the rich economic gold mine that is 21st century Belarus. The US sees a chance to profit from making Russian kids gay so covertly assist with provocations which our intelligence services are again too stupid to find any proof we could ask an anti-imperialist paper like the Guardian or Le Mond to publish.
The US enters
Staging a color revolution (ironically like the Red Revolution of 1917) in Minsk, these paid protesters of the CIA (again, proof not offered) cause the Polish military alongside their US colleagues, to invade Belarus to assist them. This leads to heavy conventional fighting and the legitimate government of Belarus, confident that when the fighting is done Russian troops will peacefully withdraw back to Russia immediately, appeals to the Kremlin for help.
Heavy conventional fighting follows but is indecisive. Seeking a quick way to end the conflict with minimal loss of life and confident the rest of the world will fully understand and support our reasons, the Kremlin de-escalates the situation with a nuclear strike on Warsaw (yes, we view a nuclear weapon exchange as potentially de-escalatory).
Russia calms things down
This leads to the fall of the fascist junta, transparent elections in Baltic region with pro-Kremlin parties victorious, the end of NATO as we supply undeniable proof of US complicity in trying to break Russia with staged revolutions, world approval at our actions and all the post Soviet states seeing the error of the ways and asking to re-join Russia.
The exercise concludes with vodka and medals.
See. We didn't use it as a cover to invade and there is no reason to stress that we've lost our fucking minds either.